2011 was an interesting year for Nigeria  we had some highs and some lows the prognosis for 2012 is that is going to be a difficult year. Subsidy removal, power price increases, the continued menance of Boko Haram. However I choose to believe that the positives of a fast growing economy and the successful implementation of the gvt's deregulation and liberalization agenda will make 2012 better than 2011

Happy New Year in advance folks

So a little while ago, I was asked to put down my thoughts on the FGN's decision to remove the petroleum subsidy in 2012. As far as I know, I don't think it was used anywhere. I guess the thing died. So I decided to give it a look over and post it here for you guys to take a look at. It basically goes from the premise that I'm in charge of implementing the subsidy program.

The Government should begin subsidy removal in 2012. If I were in tasked with removing subsidy, and all the political obstacles were overcome, this is how I’d do it:


1. Deregulate the distribution:
I’d remove the petroleum equalization fund and stop regulating trucking. The nation needs to get used to the fact that pump prices are different across the nation. This should spur the development of trucking and logistics companies that can be profitable

2. Subsidy Peg:
Make the subsidy a fixed peg. Rather than fix the pump price at N65. I’d fix the subsidy at N85/ litre and have it reduce over time. This should limit the shock to the country and allow for proper subsidy budgeting.

3. Pipeline & Depot System:
Use the majority of the funds released from the subsidy reduction to fix the pipeline system. Starting with Atlas Cove and the pipelines and depots in Lagos and then to the nationwide trunk lines.

4. Refineries:
Auction off the refineries. Strict technical criteria. Financial capacity. FG to keep 25% of each refinery company and should sell it on the Nigerian Stock Exchange.

5. Poverty Alleviation:
If we had more of a formal economy, I’d do this by tax rebate for people at certain income levels. However the only way I can think to do this is to provide free primary healthcare to every local government. Staffed, equipped etc. If there are funds left over, primary education in every local govt could be pursued as well.

So what do you guys think. If you had to remove subsidy how would you do it?

Apropos of nothing, (other than my blog at least every month streak :D) I have decided to put of a few quick hits about what I've been thinking about today. Some of these don't really merit a full post but some of them will (well may) be developed further.

Subsidy Wahala Part 100: So subsidy is technically illegal in its current form. NNPC deducts the subsidy as a first charge on the federation account. This implies that the states pay part of the subsidy. However technically this is illegal because it amounts to unappropriated spending. As a result, the state governments are refusing to sign off on September allocations, so there is no money being shared. However this reminds me of the tanker driver's strike. The tanker drivers always blink first cos they have more to lose. Most States have no Internally Generated Revenue to speak of, so i don't think they'll be able to stand off much longer.

Bayelsa Brouhaha: So Ben Bruce was apparently disqualified from running for the Governor of Bayelsa State because he has dual citizenship. The luminaries of the PDP committee are basing this on Section 182 of the constitution. However Section 182 is subject to Section 28, which makes it clear that the dual citizenship malarkey is pretty much only for non-ethnic or naturalized Nigerians. This is interpretation and not settled law as such, but most people seem to agree with the common readings. Still Mr. Bruce should go to court if only so we can get a reading on this after all.

PPP Palaver: So Ijeoma has a wicked article in This Day today about the PPP scheme for MMA2 the domestic airport built by Bi-Courtney. The article highlights the problem with PPP in Nigeria. Nobody trusts the government to honor its side of the agreement. There is practically no transaction that has been completed in the last few years that the government has not tried to renege on the agreement terms. So you have to be ridiculously politically connected to ensure that your transaction stays intact or your economics have to work if the government changes its mind in a few years.

Local Government Liberation:  A lot has been made about the RMFAC and NASS decision to provide the local government with direct access to the federation account. Currently the State Government receives the funds on behalf of the LGs and then distributes it onward. The belief is that giving the LGs the funds directly will make them more independent. However with the ability of the State Governments to dissolve the local governments any how, and the lack of immunity of the Local Government Chairman, I seriously doubt that there will be any effective independence until our polity moves past jobs for the boys politics. However if there was no jobs for the boys politics, you won't need this law anyway.

I actually had fun doing this, it flowed off my fingers like it was 2007. Who knows may be this is the start of a new beautiful friendship. Laters.

For the last couple of months I have had a front row seat to a significant portion of the discussions on the state of the Nigerian polity that goes on in the Nigerian hyper-literate class. The discussions follow a certain pattern. They start off as policy discussions and degenerate into accusations of pro and anti Jonathan bias. It's like Nigeria's version of the Godwin law.

Another thing I've noticed about the arguments from both sides is that they both start from a central premise. They believe in the magic wand theory of governance. The magic wand theory of governance goes something like this:  all you need to succeed or enact a policy is decide to do it. As a result the "pro-Jonathan" people point to his stated desire to enact one policy or another, and the "anti-Jonathan" people point to him not saying he will do something. It's similar to the Underpants Gnome theory of South Park.

I can understand the lure of the Magic Wand theory, especially since Nigeria has a strong executive and it seems intuitive that the President can do anything if he puts his mind to it. However this turns out not to be the case: the independence of the legislature (despite being the same party) the power of the civil service unions, the private sector unions, the strength of the governors etc, means that there are a lot more checks and balances than are necessarily evident.


I think the Magic Wand is also attractive because Nigeria has so many problems that seem to have obvious solutions, if only people ignore their own self interest and pull together. The President is expected to be the person that can either order or coerce people to act against their own self interest. In this narrative the President effectively becomes indistinguishable from the Saviour.

This is not to say that the President cannot do things, as I said Nigeria has a strong executive. However I think he is constrained in a manner that both his fans and his detractors do not appreciate. While I understand that dismissal of constraints is a clear characteristic of Magic Wand thinking, it is still annoying when I run up against it in conversations. Though it is amusing to get accused of being both pro and anti Jonathan in the same debate.

In a nutshell, I'm basically saying that the next time you get into a political/policy argument about Nigeria don't only think about what should be done, think also of how it can be done. And how will you do this... I don't know... a Magic Wand maybe

Laters

So I was in church this Sunday - you in the back, stop sniggering, yes, you.

There was a play on rather than a sermon, though it was indeed longer than a sermon and bumped into the start of the second service.

It was one of those "message" plays as you would expect of a church play. It was about a broken home that is restored by the love of Jesus Christ. It went as you would expect. Abusive, Philandering Husband, and Shrewish Unattractive Wife. I didn't even get too annoyed by the implied equivalence of the two characters. Basically a woman being shrewish and unattractive is just as bad as a man beating his wife and sleeping around. Still it is not Sirach level madness and so I could deal.

However I took exception to one point during the play. Just after the man batters his wife, she has a road to Damascus conversion, and becomes a good Christian... which is all well and good. She then apologizes to her husband for doing anything that made him beat her... which is definitely not all well and good.

Now I'm the kind of person that is perfectly cool with disagreeing with the messages of the church I attend, but this one kinda made my head explode. It's a play, not a sermon, but it was indeed unfortunate that the play validated the theory that a woman is ever in any way to blame for getting hit.

I had a conversation about it at lunch, and I ran into the standard argument that can be guaranteed to drive me mad. You know the one: I will never advocate hitting a woman, but you know that it is possible for a man to be provoked into hitting a woman. Why do many educated men (and women to be fair) in Nigeria believe that fists are ever a response to words? Why can't they see that the fact that the violence is not about the woman nagging, it is about winning an argument, it's about power. Cos I'd bet my bottom dollar that if the woman in question was a mixed martial artist, her husband would not be so quick to put his dukes up.

The implication of all this is that the woman did something. This is why a lot of counseling sessions about abuse start with the question "what did you do?" Break it down: the stated assumption is that the man wouldn't have hit without provocation so therefore. The implication there is that if the woman doesn't do X again, she wont be hit. So I always wonder, what happens when the lady stops doing X and then Y makes him hit, and then stops Y and Z makes him hit. That little intellectual exercise quickly shows that any conversation that starts with "what did you do" blames the woman for being beaten, no matter how it is couched.

Doing a Mercutio I should also mention that the Nigerian culture is unforgivably dismissive of domestic abuse when the woman is the one doing the battering. I think that any discussions on domestic violence should begin and end with the fact that it's categorically wrong, no ifs buts or maybes. Anybody who believes differently should be prepared to explain whether they will understand if their daughter or sister gets beaten up because they "provoked" their husband. If not they can feel free to plank on third mainland bridge. Anyway, rant over. Stay tuned for my review of ZR 7 at some point in the near future (I know better than to make promises anymore :D)

PS minus 1,000 cool points to the people that knew the three references (The title, the Sirach quote, and Mercutio)

PPS minus 1,000 more for anyone who read the above and thought of googling :D

PPPS. Explanations are here, here and here