I would willingly swear that my heart pumped fear for at least a minute when I heard about the daring MEND strike on the Shell Bonga Oil Field platform. My first thought was that "they've finally done it." We have been told ever since the whole Niger Delta thing jumped off that in the long run Nigerian oil is safe because the future is offshore and the militants cannot get offshore. Then MEND goes and attacks the crown jewel of the Nigerian oil scene apparently falsifying all those bold claims. For anyone with dreams of a better Nigeria (or anyone with dreams of corrupt enrichment :D) this new found ability of MEND is devastating to contemplate. We are way passed viewing with alarm here.

Just as it is a fond dream of jihadist terrorists to detonate a suitcase nuke in a major American city, it is a dream of the Niger Delta Militants to strike at the oil platforms floating on the Atlantic Ocean. MEND had finally achieved this dream, and by demonstrating this capability they have proven themselves a force to be reckoned with once and for all. This is major league, akin to Truman dropping the bomb on Nagasaki and Hiroshima.

As I was out of the country, I eagerly devoured all the news I could about the incident. The first thing I read was a cursory summary with basically no details. The more I found out about the incident, the more skeptical I got about the "success" of the MEND attack on the facility.

MEND basically arrived at Bonga captured four people who actually were in boats and not actually on the platform and left. MEND admitted it's inability to get into the control room, and claims that it would have destroyed the base if not for its decision to prevent the loss of life.

The uncritical Nigerian media has taken this load of crap as gospel truth, the foreign press not so much (FT, Thisday, Bloomberg) However judging by the fact that the American was released almost immediately, MEND has unilaterally declared a cease-fire, and Bonga is up and running again, it is clear that this more a publicity stunt than an actual operational mission. However no matter how much anyone tries to argue as I have, it will not be believed. It will be shouted down as wishful thinking and so on and so forth.

This is why it reminds me of the Tet offensive - the major turning point in the Vietnam war. Basically it was a major offensive by the Viet Cong and was a massive failure. However the very audacity of the attack caused the American public to believe it was successful, no matter how much the American government tried to prove that it was a failure.

However (for political reasons I think) our government is going along with the storyline that the strike was a success. The political fallout from this is yet to be determined, however one can only hope that it would lead to some genuine commitment to development in the region. After all the Tet offensive "defeat" was one of the key factors in the American withdrawal from Vietnam. So too can this Bonga "strike" be a key factor in the long awaited development of the Niger Delta region.

So the second installment of the CFA is done, and I am once again available for your reading pleasure for the foreseeable future. In addition to a shopping spree that fell well below 36’s famed standards ;) the trip for my exam also gave me some fodder for a relationship theory post.

Unfortunately for me, my exam finished at 5pm and so there was no opportunity to go straight from the exam to a party (it’s overrated, but it seems to be one of those required things). Flash forward to Edgware and I’m chilling with a bunch of friends (trust me you don’t want a narration of the two hour trip from the Docklands to Edgware).

One of my friends was tackling another (apparently tackling is the new word for taccing (which is the old new word for yapping) ). One of my friends had proceeded to hook up (well kiss) the younger sibling of a good friend of a six-month old Ex. Apparently this was a no-no. The clincher was that it was the YOUNGER sibling of the ex that was the issue. I guess it was somehow demeaning to the Ex that it was a smallie (new word for juvie). There are certain no-go areas when it comes to hook-ups but I don’t think that the younger sibling of an Ex’s friend is one of them.

So this got me thinking. What’s the statute of limitations on other people’s old relationships determining your future decisions.

Some people say there should be none – if two people like each other that’s it. By their lights, you could date your brother’s ex if you so chose. I don’t want to hate on anyone else, but naah!!!

Everyone has their own opinions about this, so here are mine.

Family (Statute of Limitations: None –Kinda Like Murder)

Naah. Not gonna happen. If they’ve dated someone I’m interested in I will regrettably move on. After all there are other fish in the sea, and I have a pretty decent net.

Close Friends (Statute of Limitations: 7 Years – Kinda Like Rape)

Now this one is a bit tricky. My first instinct is to say that while I would have no problem dating someone my close friend went out with in high-school, I may have a problem dating someone a close friend went out with in college. However there are some friends that are like fam…

Friends You’re Cool With ( Statute of Limitations: 6 months – Misdemeanor Territory)

Even that six months sef…

Six Degrees of Separation Folk (Statute of Limitations: 1 Week)

And that’s only out of respect… well and to let the crying die down… unless…

So What are your Statute of Limitations?

Intro
Aiight so it's been like a century since I graced these pages with my probably, nay definitely, inestimable wit. Very many things have changed since that time including the power situation in Nigeria. Walk with me as I examine the recent happenings in the power sector.

The Power Probe
So anyone not living under a rock and is in some way, shape or form interested in the goings on of Nigeria has heard about the investigation of the National Integrated Power Project (NIPP), known affectionately as The Power Probe. The august members of the assembly were in great form as they tut tutted in disbelief about the vast sums of money that were wasted by the previous government in its quest to provide electricity to Nigerians. Contractor after contractor, after minister was called in an attempt to get to the bottom of the scandal. There was no sacred cow as even Baba himself was called to appear before the committee.

The nation recoiled in abject horror when it heard that $16 billion had been spent on power with nary a megawatt to show for it. At first I too rose with righteous rage, at the profligate wastage of our nations wealth. However this rage was quickly spent after a brief discussion with someone who knew about the NIPP. First of all $16 billion was not spent, apparently that was what was appropriated. However the government failed to pay the contractors, as numerous contractors proved (some with color photos in the dailies). There is a reason why there was no call for prosecution. Anyway in as mich as it provided a safe outlet for peoples anger at the situation you can't knock the probes. However as anyone with half a brain knows. It doesn't do anything to actually solve the problem.

MYTO
Here is something only power industry watchers, and dedicated readers of the Nigerian dailies would know. The federal government has planned to increase the electricity tariff by passing the Multi Year Tarrif Order. It will take effect on July 1. Prices per kilowatt hour will rise from the criminally low N8 /kwH to N11 /kwH To put things in perspective, it costs about N60 /kwh to use a diesel generator. As one would expect labor has already started kicking against the price increase, something about the poor man (one of the churches also got in on the act). It's funny. If you ask almost anyone if they are willing to pay more for a PHCN that works, i'd bet that no one would even say phfim.

The Diesel Madness
Here is something everybody, everywhere knows - the cost of diesel has gone mad. However the Nigerian Madneess unlike the foreign one has an added boost - PHCN. Problem Has Changed Name Indeed. About three weeks ago, if seemed like PHCN decided that they were generating too much power and total generating capacity dropped to about 850MW from the standard performance of 2500 - 2800. The resultant scramble for diesel knocked up prices to about N110. However in the past two week prices have jumped again to between N135 and N140 (some people are claiming N150 even) even though generating capacity has now risen "back" to N1600MW. Our tanker drivers have decided to join their European brothers and threaten a strike if things are not done. Which of course would just be perfect - after all with the way power is right now petrol scarcity would be a welcome addition.

Conclusion
I have decided to leave y'all with one of the juciest rumors going around on this whole power thing. The African Finance Corporation (AFC) - a brainchild of Soludo modelled after the IFC of the World Bank - was to be given charge of PHCN in order to get it ready for privatization. All of a sudden, you started hearing members of the House of Representatives saying the the PHCN should not be taking any loans (there was going to be a loan component). Also the Federal Goverment started investigating the CBN investment in AFC (something about due process). Now it's probably coincidence that the investigation started right around this time. However it's mighty suspicious. The fact that no mention is being made about the AFC role in PHCN also doesn't bode well. Regardless of the truth of the rumor. It just means that we should be a little bit less optmistic about the whole power thing. Maybe 2012 for 6,000MW eh?