Crossing into 2010, there is sense of expectation in the year. The widespread belief that 2010 is the year we finally recover. All over the world people are lifting up their heads and saying that a change is finally going to come.

In Nigeria the sense is particularly acute because 2009 was the worst year for the country since the global financial crisis started. 2009 was the year that our own various home grown crises threatened to spin us into the abyss. However 2009 also sowed the seeds of the optimism that we as a nation share for 2010.

The Nigerian banking crisis may truly be the catalyst for a cleaner, more effective banking sector. All the banks (albeit with CBN largess) have managed to come through 2009, and there is the expectation that it will not be business as usual for the foreseeable future. This came at a significant personal cost to many employed in that industry with over 10,000 people losing their jobs at the various banks. These employees, are the casualties in the war for the banking sector and must be mourned.

The Yar'Adua government instituted the amnesty policy in the Niger Delta in middle of last year. There have been many criticisms trailing the policy, and doubts about the sincerity of the policy, but one thing is clear; the amnesty policy worked. It may not be sustained, and there are a lot of people predicting this. However I will like to point out that these people also predicted that it would not work in the first place. The amnesty has given us a real chance for peace in the Niger Delta, and the opportunity to grasp this chance has to be taken in 2010.

The government has made significant inroads in the power situation in Nigeria. The target was modest, the implementation was lax, the bottlenecks were out of everyone's control, but there is a genuine belief that 2010 will be a massive improvement in the power situation. I believe that the missing of the 6000MW deadline could turn out to be a blessing in disguise, but time will tell in that regard.

There are the hopeful noises about other infrastructure such as roads, railways, and submarine cables, and they fall into the general background of optimism that Nigeria's 2010 will be markedly better than our 2009.

However the main stumbling block to the optimism being realised is political.

First and foremost is the health of the President. There is a sense of ennui that has inflicted the country following the President's recent trip out of the country. There is a sense of major decisions not being taken, and political paralysis that comes with a lack of defined authority. This may not last as there are rumblings that there have been deals made to deal with the political crisis engendered by the president's health. Q1 2010 will give a good sense of this.

The second issue is that elections are in 2011, if 2010 is anything like 2006, then from the second half of 2010 nothing will get done. The election induced paralysis could be even worse that the speculation over the president's health as this affects the state and federal levels of governments in every state (except the few off-cycle ones).

Still 2010 has more going for it than against it, and I truly believe that Nigeria will have a decent amount to celebrate when we finally turn 50.