Atiku was recently chosen as the consensus candidate to run against Jonathan in the PDP primaries. Of the four possible candidates, he was the one that has the best chance of winning. IBB has too much baggage, Saraki isn't seen as wholly North, and Gusau is too much of an unknown quantity on the political side. I don't know if Atiku can win against Jonathan, but its closer to an actual contest with him running.

Apparently Ribadu will be running uncontested for the AC presidential candidacy. His chances of winning appear to be slim at best, as the AC hasn't really developed the infrastructure to win a nationwide election. However he does have name recognition, such that he could provide some stiff competition on the ballot box if the elections are indeed free and fair.

The attempted takeover of the PDP by the current members of the National Assembly seems to be petering out. Making themselves members of the National Executive Council, wouldn't really have preserved their seats, but it was worth a try. I suppose the fact that the reelection of most candidates is at the whim of the governors drove them to desperation. Personally, the fact that this is the most do nothing National Assembly in the history of our nascent democracy means that we should ship all of them back to their houses anyway.

The Fashola campaign seems to have started in Lagos, it seems that he will be the nominee of the AC in Lagos baring any last minute surprises. The fact that the PDP haven't really started doing anything with the elections being at most 5 months away, means that they are being realistic about their chances in 2011 if Fashola runs.

The State Houses of Assembly have ratified the second amendment to the constitution which amongst other things gives INEC the ability to schedule elections between January and April, and makes the Supreme Court the final appeal body for governorship electoral disputes. Depending on the outcome of the random lawsuits, it will already be law or require the president's assent. If this National Assembly cared more about their job, than about flexing... but if wishes were horses right.

My initial impressions of the build up to 2011, is that there is less of a frenzy surrounding the elections compared to 2007. I don't know if this is the calm before the storm, or if we will manage to keep this relatively peaceful throughout the process. Here's to hoping for a free and fair 2011.